Last Updated: January 23, 2026.
Key Takeaway: As of January 22, 2026, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are moderately low with normal movement. The mortgage market is shifting from typical patterns based on this indicator.
Overview
This report evaluates 30-year fixed mortgage rates as of January 22, 2026, using weekly data from Freddie Mac (via FRED). Rolling 52-week statistical benchmarks are applied to both rate levels and week-over-week changes to distinguish structural mortgage market trends from short-term volatility. Z-score analysis is used to identify when rates deviate meaningfully from their recent historical patterns.
Weekly Analysis
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending January 22 2026 is 6.09%. The level Z-score is -1.64 (Moderately Low, 5th percentile). The delta Z-score is +0.82 (Normal Movement). Week-over-week change: +0.03 percentage points.
Statistical Interpretation: Current rates are 1.64 standard deviations below the 52-week mean, placing them at the 5th percentile of recent observations. The series is beginning to diverge from its 52-week average, though still within historically common bounds. This week’s change of +0.82 standard deviations is typical for weekly movements. Rates remain consistent with recent trends.
Custom Research and Analysis: Need a specialized evaluation or help interpreting specific datasets? We provide professional statistical analysis and custom reporting tailored to your requirements. Contact us to request a custom report.